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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">tiblj</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Туберкулез и болезни легких</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2075-1230</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2542-1506</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Медицинские знания и технологии</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.58838/2075-1230-2024-102-3-34-40</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">tiblj-1813</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ORIGINAL ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Оценка вероятности прогрессирования фиброза легких у пациентов с интерстициальными болезнями легких для определения дальнейшей тактики лечения</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Assessment of Probability of Pulmonary Fibrosis Progression in Patients with Interstitial Lung Diseases to Determine Further Treatment Tactics</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лукашевич</surname><given-names>А. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lukashevich</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Лукашевич Анастасия Александровна, ассистент кафедры патологической анатомии</p><p>220083, г. Минск, пр. Дзержинского, 83</p><p>Тел.: + 375 (17) 252-12-01</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Anastasia A. Lukashevich, Assistant of Pathological Anatomy Department</p><p>83 Dzerzhinskogo Ave., Minsk, 220083</p><p>Phone: + 375 (17) 252-12-01</p><p> </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">lukashevichaa89@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Юдина</surname><given-names>О. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Yudina</surname><given-names>O. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Юдина Ольга Анатольевна, кандидат медицинских наук, доцент, врач-патологоанатом</p><p>223052, Минская обл, Минский р-н, аг. Ждановичи, 81/5</p><p>Тел.: + 375 (17) 543-44-44</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Olga A. Yudina, Candidate of Medical Sciences,Morbid Anatomist</p><p>81/5 ag. Zhdanovichi, Minsk District, Minsk Region, 223052</p><p>Phone: + 375 (17) 543-44-44</p><p> </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">o.yudina@inbox.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Богуш</surname><given-names>Л. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bogush</surname><given-names>L. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Богуш Людмила Степановна, кандидат медицинских наук, доцент, ведущий научный сотрудник</p><p>220053, г. Минск, Долгиновский тракт, 157 </p><p>Тел.: + 375 (17) 373-87-95</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Lyudmila S. Bogush, Candidate of Medical Sciences, Associate Professor, Leading Researcher</p><p>157 Dolginovsky Road, Minsk, 220053</p><p>Phone: + 375 (17) 373-87-95</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ludabogush@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Давидовская</surname><given-names>Е. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Davidovskaya</surname><given-names>E. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Богуш Людмила Степановна, кандидат медицинских наук, доцент, ведущий научный сотрудник</p><p>220053, г. Минск, Долгиновский тракт, 157 </p><p>Тел.: + 375 (17) 373-87-95</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Elena I. Davidovskaya, Candidate of Medical Sciences, Associate Professor,Head of Department of Pulmonology and Surgical Treatment of Respiratory Diseases</p><p>157 Dolginovsky Road, Minsk, 220053</p><p>Phone: + 375 (17) 373-87-95</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Дюсьмикеева</surname><given-names>М. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Dyusmikeeva</surname><given-names>M. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Дюсьмикеева Марина Игоревна, кандидат медицинских наук, доцент, заведующая патологоанатомическим отделением</p><p>220053, г. Минск, Долгиновский тракт, 157 </p><p>Тел.: + 375 (17) 373-87-95</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Marina I. Dyusmikeeva, Candidate of Medical Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of Autopsy Department</p><p>157 Dolginovsky Road, Minsk, 220053</p><p>Phone: + 375 (17) 373-87-95</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">trimige@inbox.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Белько</surname><given-names>А. Ф.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Belko</surname><given-names>A. F.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Белько Анна Федоровна, научный сотрудник</p><p>220053, г. Минск, Долгиновский тракт, 157 </p><p>Тел.: + 375 (17) 373-87-95</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Anna F. Belko, Researcher</p><p>157 Dolginovsky Road, Minsk, 220053</p><p>Phone: + 375 (17) 373-87-95</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">niipulm@tut.bu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Белорусский государственный медицинский  университет</institution><country>Беларусь</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Belarusian State Medical University</institution><country>Belarus</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Республиканский клинический медицинский центр Управления делами Президента Республики Беларусь</institution><country>Беларусь</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Republican Clinical Medical Center Administration of President of Belarus</institution><country>Belarus</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Республиканский научно-практический центр пульмонологии и фтизиатрии</institution><country>Беларусь</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Republican Scientific and Practical Center of Pulmonology and Phthisiology</institution><country>Belarus</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2024</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>04</day><month>07</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>102</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>34</fpage><lpage>40</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Лукашевич А.А., Юдина О.А., Богуш Л.С., Давидовская Е.И., Дюсьмикеева М.И., Белько А.Ф., 2024</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Лукашевич А.А., Юдина О.А., Богуш Л.С., Давидовская Е.И., Дюсьмикеева М.И., Белько А.Ф.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Lukashevich A.A., Yudina O.A., Bogush L.S., Davidovskaya E.I., Dyusmikeeva M.I., Belko A.F.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.tibl-journal.com/jour/article/view/1813">https://www.tibl-journal.com/jour/article/view/1813</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Цель исследования</title><p>Цель исследования: разработать способ оценки вероятности прогрессирования фиброза легких у пациентов с интерстициальными болезнями легких для определения дальнейшей тактики лечения.</p></sec><sec><title>Материалы и методы</title><p>Материалы и методы. Среди 80 пациентов с ИБЛ провели клиническое обследование: морфологическое и иммуногистохимическое исследования биоптатов легких. Группу с прогрессирующим фиброзом составили 42 пациента. Построение прогностической модели осуществляли с помощью метода бинарной логистической регрессии.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. Разработана статистическая модель в виде регрессионного уравнения, включающая 3 показателя: наличие морфологического паттерна интерстициального фиброза; интенсивность экспрессии CTGF; интенсивность экспрессии TGF-β. Данная математическая модель позволяет прогнозировать с чувствительностью 83,3% и специфичностью 84,2% прогрессирование фиброза легких у пациентов с интерстициальными болезнями легких.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>The objective</title><p>The objective: to develop a method for assessing the probability of progression of pulmonary fibrosis in patients with interstitial lung diseases in order to determine further treatment tactics.</p></sec><sec><title>Subjects and Methods</title><p>Subjects and Methods. 80 patients with interstitial lung diseases underwent lung biopsies with consequent morphological and immunohistochemical tests. The group with progressive fibrosis consisted of 42 patients. The prognostic model was built using the binary logistic regression method.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. A statistical model was developed in the form of a regression equation consisting of 3 parameters: the presence of a morphological pattern of interstitial fibrosis; intensity of CTGF expression; and intensity of TGF-β expression. This mathematical model makes it possible to predict the progression of pulmonary fibrosis in patients with interstitial lung diseases with 83.3% sensitivity and 84.2% specificity.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>интерстициальные болезни легких</kwd><kwd>прогрессирование фиброза легкого</kwd><kwd>морфологическое исследование</kwd><kwd>иммуногистохимическое исследование</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование вероятности</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>interstitial lung diseases</kwd><kwd>progression of lung fibrosis</kwd><kwd>morphological tests</kwd><kwd>immunohistochemical test</kwd><kwd>probability prediction</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Глинская Т.Н. 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