A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE EPIDEMIC PROCESS OF TUBERCULOSIS AMONG THE PEDIATRIC POPULATION OF THE IRKUTSK REGION
https://doi.org/10.21292/2075-1230-2015-0-3-24-28
Abstract
The paper describes the experience in simulating the epidemic process of tuberculosis in case of the pediatric population of the Irkutsk Region. The model is based on the results of questionnaire surveys of the parents of 439 children. A group of children from low-income families that are in contact with tuberculosis patients (6%) has been ascertained to have the greatest impact on the epidemiological situation of the disease. The group’s contribution to morbidity rates is 60%. Controlled preventive treatment in risk-group children may reduce morbidity rates for children by 45%.
About the Authors
E. Yu. Zorkaltseva
Irkutsk State Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Irkutsk
Russian Federation
Irkutsk
V. I. Zorkaltsev
L. A. Melentyev Institute of Power Systems, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Irkutsk
Russian Federation
Irkutsk
S. N. Shugaeva
Irkutsk State Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Irkutsk
Russian Federation
Irkutsk
References
1. Aksenova V. A., Klevno N. I., Sevostyanova T. A. TB situation in children and adolescents in Russia. Tub., 2011, no. 4, pp. 22. (In Russ.)
2. Devyatkov M. Yu. Integral factorial evaluation of TB prevention activities. Prob. Tub., 1997, no. 4, pp. 8-9. (In Russ.)
3. Zorkaltseva E. Yu. Risk factors for TB infection and developing the active disease in children in Irkutsk Region. Byulleten VCNTS CO RAMN, 2004, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 112-116. (In Russ.)
4. Zorkaltseva E. Yu. [Simulation of TB situation development in children population. Methods of optimization and their application, Abstracts of XIV Baikal International Seminar]. Opyt imitatsionnogo modelirovaniya protekaniya epidemiologicheskogo tuberkuleznogo protsessa sredi detskogo naseleniya. Metody optimizatsii i ikh prilozheniya. Trudy XIV Baikalskoy mezhdunarodnoy shkoly-seminara. Publ. Institute of Energy Systems of L. A. Melentiev SD of RAS, 2008, pp. 48-62.
5. Zorkaltseva E. Yu., Zorkaltsev V.I. Imitatsionnoye modelirovaniye epidemiologicheskogo tuberkuleznogo protsessa. Metod. Rekom. [Simulation of TB situation development. Guidelines], Irkutsk, 2009, 31 p.
6. Ilyicheva E. Yu. Economic aspects of TB detection in risk groups, identified through screening by questionnaires. Prob. Tub., 1996, no. 2, pp. 3-5. (In Russ.)
7. LukyanenkoN. V. Epidemiologicheskiy nadzor za tuberkulezom kak osnova sistemnogo podkhoda k bor’be s sotsialno obuslovlennymi zabolevaniyami. Funktsionalnaya model Altaiskogo kraya. Dokt. diss. [TB epidemiological surveillance as a systematic approach to control of social diseases (functional model of Altai Region)]. Doct. Diss., Kemerovo, 2002. 42 p. (In Russ.)
8. KhrulevaT. S. TB reservoir. Prob. Tub., 2001, no. 6, pp. 11-14. (In Russ.)
9. Anderson Roy M. Tuberculose, chiffresetpolemique. Recherche, 1999, no. 319, pp. 36 -39.
10. Lietman T., Blower Sn. Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines as epidemic control agents. Clin. Infec. Deseases, 2000, no. 30-3, pp. 316-322.
Review
For citations:
Zorkaltseva E.Yu., Zorkaltsev V.I., Shugaeva S.N. A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE EPIDEMIC PROCESS OF TUBERCULOSIS AMONG THE PEDIATRIC POPULATION OF THE IRKUTSK REGION. Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases. 2015;(3):24-28. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21292/2075-1230-2015-0-3-24-28
Views:
580
Email this article 